Indian Public Policy Review

400 Million Dreams!

Bibek Debroy — 2025-03-23

Movement of people is a fundamental economic activity having significant influence on public policy. Typically, studies on migration have relied either on the decennial Census or on irregular Surveys. By the time Census data is published, typically 6-7 years after collection, it is already dated. Moreover, Census data – though comprehensive and granular – captures a stock of migrants rather than dynamic, seasonal trends. This paper seeks to address this gap by harnessing three high frequency and granular datasets – Indian Railway Unreserved Ticketing System (UTS) data on passenger volumes; mobile telephone roaming data from the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI); and district level banking data, to provide near-real time insights into migration flows. Our findings indicate that overall domestic migration in India has slowed. Since Census 2011, the number of migrants has reduced by about 11.78%, to ~40 Crore and the migration rate (percentage of migrants in the population) reduced to 28.88%. We hypothesize that this is on account of improved conditions and opportunities at the places of origin. Further, spatial trends in migration appear to be in line with gravity models of migration, with short distance migration accounting for the largest share. We go on to identify popular destinations, major origin districts, and build dyads of popular migration routes.

Compensating for the Fiscal Loss in India’s Energy Transition

Laveesh Bhandari — 2025-03-23

India has committed to ambitious targets, aiming to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070; however, this transition away from fossil fuels presents significant fiscal and institutional challenges, that warrant careful examination. This study primarily explores the dynamics of tax revenues and the fiscal implications of India's transition. As fossil fuel consumption declines over time, government revenues generated from fossil fuels are also expected to decrease relative to GDP. The research delves into the institutional challenges related to enhancing existing tax systems, and considers the viability of implementing a carbon tax as an alternative revenue source to replace fossil fuel taxes. The study assesses various tax revenue options, evaluating their effectiveness in revenue generation, long-term sustainability required institutional changes, and the preservation of state autonomy. Allocating revenue between the union and individual states can be an intricate task. The study highlights the potential of carbon taxes as a valuable medium-term solution to address revenue loss. However, it also underscores the challenges associated with their implementation, including institutional barriers and political-economic complexities, particularly within India's fiscal-federal structure. Active engagement from institutions like the Finance Commission and the GST Council is emphasised, recognising their critical roles in managing this transition and mitigating its impact on state-level fiscal autonomy.

Fiscal Federalism and Climate Change

Anoop Singh — 2025-03-23

This paper examines India’s evolving climate change governance framework, emphasizing the role of its federal structure in shaping national and subnational climate action. Given India’s commitment to ambitious climate goals like achieving net-zero emissions by 2070 and aligning with the Paris Agreement, the study underscores the need for a cohesive, multi-level governance approach to effectively implement these targets. It critically assesses the current institutional landscape, identifying gaps in coordination and sectoral integration of climate action. India’s reliance on sector-specific laws and policies, coupled with the absence of overarching climate legislation, highlights the urgent need for a unified legal framework to mainstream climate considerations into governance. Drawing on international experience, it explores how fiscal federalism principles can strengthen India’s climate governance by empowering state governments and decentralizing climate action, while maintaining national coherence. The paper proposes strategies to optimize institutional support, enhance financial mechanisms, and foster cross-sectoral coordination. It outlines a roadmap for strengthening India's climate governance, focusing on establishing national climate laws, integrating climate change into fiscal and policy planning, and improving coordination between central and state authorities. By offering a pathway for scaling up climate action in India, the paper aims to ensure equity and sustainability in India’s transition to a low-carbon, resilient economy.

Examining exclusions in the Public Distribution System

O. Grace Ngullie — 2025-03-23

Article 21 of the Indian Constitution guarantees the right to life, with the right to food being a fundamental aspect of this guarantee. Policies concerning beneficiary coverage and Aadhaar biometric identification have led to significant exclusions within the Public Distribution System, which undermine this right. This raises critical ethical questions regarding these policies. The ethical framework embedded in the Indian Constitution has substantial implications for contemporary policymaking. How can policy ethics ensure the right to food—the right to life—for all individuals? This study assesses policies through evidence-based research, centred on the implementation of the PDS in Nagaland, India. Exclusions primarily stem from the interplay of census and identity politics, coupled with a technological determinism largely influenced by centralized state control and surveillance. This often overshadows constitutional values and objectives in policy decisions, compromising the foundational ethical principles of policymaking. Policy formulation grounded in reliable population data, targeted inclusion initiatives, flexible identity verification, and dedicated support for the most vulnerable groups is essential for ensuring inclusivity. Empowering local institutions and community-led organizations, particularly self-help groups in the management of welfare programs, can significantly enhance inclusivity. Public policies must rekindle the radical spirit of the Constitution and actualize the ethical framework envisaged within it.

Diffusion, innovation and the tech-politics underlying power transitions

Lokendra Sharma — 2025-03-23

In Technology and the Rise of Great Powers, Ding examines the historical industrial revolutions (from 1780s onwards) to argue that it was diffusion of general purpose technologies as opposed to advantage in leading sectors that decided the outcome of great power transitions. In this review article, Ding’s framework is applied to India for discerning the lessons it holds for rising powers amid the ongoing Fourth Industrial Revolution.