Compensating for the Fiscal Loss in India’s Energy Transition

Abstract

India has committed to ambitious targets, aiming to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070; however, this transition away from fossil fuels presents significant fiscal and institutional challenges, that warrant careful examination. This study primarily explores the dynamics of tax revenues and the fiscal implications of India's transition. As fossil fuel consumption declines over time, government revenues generated from fossil fuels are also expected to decrease relative to GDP. The research delves into the institutional challenges related to enhancing existing tax systems, and considers the viability of implementing a carbon tax as an alternative revenue source to replace fossil fuel taxes. The study assesses various tax revenue options, evaluating their effectiveness in revenue generation, long-term sustainability required institutional changes, and the preservation of state autonomy. Allocating revenue between the union and individual states can be an intricate task. The study highlights the potential of carbon taxes as a valuable medium-term solution to address revenue loss. However, it also underscores the challenges associated with their implementation, including institutional barriers and political-economic complexities, particularly within India's fiscal-federal structure. Active engagement from institutions like the Finance Commission and the GST Council is emphasised, recognising their critical roles in managing this transition and mitigating its impact on state-level fiscal autonomy.