Tales of a few cities

Examining trends in growth of cities in India using novel high frequency data

Abstract

This paper extends a previously developed model for analysing passenger movement using Indian Railways Unreserved Ticketing System (IR-UTS) data to examine urban growth in Mumbai, Chennai, Delhi, and Kolkata. The study analyses suburban travel patterns on the Indian Railways network as an indicator of spatial urban expansion. While suburban travel differs from migration, it effectively reveals urban growth patterns. The research integrates geospatial earth observation data with housing property prices to explore relationships between population dispersion and real estate values. Combining processed satellite imagery with Land Use Land Classification (LULC) data enables mapping of urban growth directions. Key findings show suburban travel rebounded post-COVID lockdowns but remains below pre-pandemic levels, potentially due to changed transport preferences or emerging counter-magnets. The analysis examines passenger arrival trends from top origin districts for each metropolitan city to understand urban growth patterns and LULC changes in suburban areas. The methodology demonstrates how high-frequency railway passenger data can effectively track urban spatial expansion when combined with geospatial and property market data. This integrated approach provides valuable insights into post-pandemic urban development patterns across India's major metropolitan centres, offering a novel framework for urban planning and policy analysis.