Vol. 5 No. 3 (May-Jun) (2024): Indian Public Policy Review

This paper examines how the People’s Republic of China (PRC) uses information as an instrument of strategic warfare, across military and non-military domains, in the pursuit of strategic advantage over India. Beijing’s ‘information operations’ encompass the creation, manipulation, or selective use of information to discredit New Delhi’s international profile, advance territorial claims, and show the PRC in a favourable light to domestic and international audiences. The PRC’s diplomatic missions, State/Party-owned & affiliated media organizations, and social media users play an important role in amplifying this pro-PRC narrative. This paper therefore elaborates on the tactics adopted by the above actors in deploying an information operation, ranging from the use of falsely attributed material, the targeting of India’s leaders, and the creation of deepfakes. While it is difficult to quantify the success of these information operations, they are of consequence to India’s domestic stability and global strategic outlook, and further engender a hostile international environment. Given the PRC’s capacity to disrupt India's information ecosystem and infrastructure, this paper recommends that India’s deterrence strategy should focus on technological resilience, raising public awareness, and enhancing international cooperation.

This paper examines the provision for Internet blocking and shutdowns in Indian law, and compares it with international human rights law (IHRL). It finds that IHRL potentially offers a useful lens through which to view these actions; that IHRL is widely accepted by the Indian state, including the judiciary; and that IHRL provides a useful complement to constitutional analysis. It also finds that the Indian laws and practices around Internet shutdowns and online content blocking fall short of IHRL in significant ways, including when it comes to the principles of legality, legitimate aims, necessity, proportionality, transparency, and remedies for violation of rights. Finally, it offers suggestions on how to improve the laws and practices in each of these areas, so as to comply with India’s IHRL obligations.

India has a goal of achieving a $7 trillion economy in 2030, and subsequently a developed nation status by 2047. While some studies/reports have explored the possibilities of reaching these targets based on assumptions regarding the growth rate, inflation etc., this study is an attempt to forecast the future growth of the Indian economy till 2047-48, using the Markov Switching model and real GDP growth data from 1993-94 to 2022-23, and verify when these goals will be achieved. Since the economic outcomes are highly heterogeneous across the Indian States, and there are indications of divergence in economic growth, it also estimates and predicts the future growth prospects of the top six states to see how much these top states contributes to achieve the targets. The findings suggest that India will achieve the US$ 7 trillion target by 2032-33 and the per capita income level of developed nation by 2046-47, assuming 4.5% inflation and 2% depreciation of exchange rate. Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Gujarat are expected to reach per capita income mark of developed nation by 2037-38, Maharashtra is expected to reach in 2040-41. West Bengal will reach this target by 2047-48, while Uttar Pradesh has to go a long way to reach this ambitious target.

This study focusses on three aspects of the association between human development and economic growth in India: (i) the pattern of the relationship between economic growth and human development in India at the national and state levels; (ii) whether economic growth was converging at the state level; and (iii) whether human development was converging at the state level. In the last two decades, India outperformed advanced and developing economies in per capita income growth and health and education indicators, propelling itself into the virtuous category (high-EG, high-HD). By employing data for 26 states and union territories (UTs) for three decades (1990–2019), a diverse pattern was observed in the relationship between economic growth and human development, with most of the states (16) in the virtuous category, and the others in three different categories. However, no clear pattern emerged from the dynamic movements in the last three decades, as there were cases of states moving from one category in one decade to another category in different decade. There was no evidence of economically weaker and low HD states catching up with economically well-off and high HD states, respectively. However, club convergence was occurring, i.e., economically weaker states were catching up with economically well-off states in the low-income, high-HD club. Economically weaker and low HD states can catch up with economically well-off and high HD states only if similar conditions are created.

This essay reviews the 2022 book by Ian Williams, 'The Fire of the Dragon', which explores the contours of "China's rise" and its external relations with both major powers like the US and India, and smaller regional nations such as Philippines and Taiwan. Further, the essay questions the notion that the current geopolitical order is a 'new Cold War', as proposed by Williams. By assessing China's quest for resources, the essay also highlights its critical position in global value chains, and its burgeoning ambitions in technology geopolitics. Finally, the essay discusses tensions in the India-China bilateral relationship, revolving around the border dispute between the two countries.